Trans Name Changes & Baby Name Trends
Do trans people function as cultural early adopters in naming? A study of 149,602 Ontario Gazette records (2000–2024).
Mean cross-correlation lag by group
Positive = name changes precede baby naming trends; negative = name changes follow trends
Primary Finding
Across all gazette name changes, the mean lag is −0.30 years — people generally follow current naming trends. But in the trans-coded subset, this flips to +0.86 years: trans name changes appear in the gazette before those names peak in baby data.
Important Caveat
The female trans positive lag (+1.71y) is likely a statistical artifact: trans women tend to choose 1970s–80s female names (JESSICA, JENNIFER) that were already declining. Two declining series can produce a spurious lag. Granger causality tests are non-significant. See the About tab.
Curve score by era (trans-coded records)
−1 = fully behind the curve, +1 = maximally ahead. All groups score negative (choosing past-peak names).
| Period | n records | All trans | Female | Male |
|---|
Name Explorer
Search any name to see its baby naming trend over time, gazette appearances, and curve score.
Search for a name above to explore its trend.
Try: JESSICA · OLIVER · NOVA · KIMBERLEY · JOAN · KAI
Dashed vertical lines show gazette appearances — red = female name, blue = male name, grey = neutral
Curve Score
Lag Correlation
Gazette Appearances
Old names are not shown (privacy).
Browse Names
Explore all names from the gazette, filtered and sorted by curve score or count.
Large dots = p<0.05. Click a name to open in Name Explorer.
Curve score distributions by group
Mean curve score over time (trans-coded records, 2000–2018)
Dashed lines = female / male trans separately. Solid = all trans-coded.
Curve score vs gender delta
Coloured by 5-year era. Shows whether the trans signal is concentrated at high |δ|.
Mean lag vs gender delta threshold
As we restrict to higher |δ| (more strongly trans-coded), how does the mean lag change?
Lag distribution: female vs male trans names
Lag distribution: pre vs post 2006 trans opt-out
Since 2006, trans people can request non-publication in the Gazette, introducing systematic underrepresentation.
Click any bar to explore that name. Scores based on curve_score for trans-coded records with n≥3.
Data Table
All 72,013 scored name change records. Privacy: old names are not shown.
| New Name | Year | Gender Delta | Curve Score |
|---|
About This Project
Research question, methodology, findings, and limitations.
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